DAILY STOCK MARKET UPDATE: 04.10.2011

Stock

Karachi Stocks Up 131.45 Points:
KARACHI, Oct 04: The KSE-100 index was at 11839.70, up 131.45 points.

October 3, 2011

TOP  5  SCRIPTS GAINERS AND LOOSERS:

UniLever Pak Ltd	Rs 30.18	Nestle Pakistan	Rs (155.10)
Colgate palmolive	Rs 7.33	Siemens Pak	Rs (44.19)
Mehmood Tex	Rs 3.11	Wyeth Pak Limited	Rs (36.59)
Treet Corporation	Rs 2.67	Indus Dyeing	Rs (21.28)
Gul Ahmed Textiles	Rs 2.40	Fazal Textile	Rs (13.97)

KSE 30 – Shares Index	Previous11,220.93, Monday’s 11,193.89, minus 27.04 points
KSE 100 – Shares Index	Previous 11,761.97, Monday’s 11,708.25, minus 53.72 points
MARKET CAPITALIZATION	Previous Rs.3,103.910bn, Monday’s 3,090.519bn, minus 13.391bn
VOLUME LEADERS	Fatima Fertiliser 6.980m, Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim 4.001m, Arif Habib Corpn 3.812m, Engro Corpn 3.468m, Fauji Fertiliser 2.727m shares.
TOTAL VOLUME	55.946m shares
TOTAL	TONE; Easy, total listed 638, actives 366, inactives 272, plus 109, minus 156, unchanged 101

Stocks lose 53 points on profit-selling

KARACHI, Oct 3: The share market on Monday ran into profit-selling at the inflated levels under the lead of oil shares but the selling was well absorbed at the dips amid fractional price changes.

The KSE 100-share index shed 53.72 points at 11,708.25 as compared to the last weekend`s 11,761.97, reflecting the weakness of the broader market. The strength of leading base shares, notably OGDC and Pakistan Oilfields limited the market fall.
The share market was in a highly overbought position after the last four weeks` sustained run-up and needed correction at the higher levels as some of leading base shares remained in pressure under the lead of Engro Corporation and some oil shares.
Analyst Ahsan Mehanti said extremely narrow price movements both on the middle order stocks and blue chip counters and sharp decline in the turnover figure reflects that selling was not that aggressive as to cause a major decline in the prevailing higher prices.
“Investors are adjusting positions ahead of the widely speculated cut in the official discount rate by the central bank on its weekend meeting”, he said, and added: “I don`t think the correction will be extended for another session”.
The market is eagerly awaiting the central bank meeting on Oct 8, and a section of leading bulls is already around to welcome any downward revision in the key policy rate after initiating a bull-run on those sectors, which will be the chief beneficiaries, said another leading analyst Ashraf Zakria.
Owing to fall in international oil prices some of the oil stocks also attracted selling but renewed support in the leading fertilizer shares, notably Fauji Fertiliser, Fatima Fertiliser and Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim, another leading analyst Samar Iqbal said.
“Investors believe that the rumoured cut in the policy interest rate would make fertilizer stocks more attractive from point of view of dividend yield and hence remained in the limelight,” he added.
Minus signs dominated the list under the lead of Nestle Pakistan and Siemens Pakistan, off by Rs155.10 and Rs44.19, while Unilever Pakistan and Colgate Pakistan managed to finish with an extended gain of Rs30.18 and 7.33, respectively.
Traded volume shrank to 55.946m shares from the previous 97m as losers held a fair lead over the gainers at 156 to 109, while 101 shares holding on to the last levels.
The active list was topped by Fatima Fertiliser, steady by 13 paisa at Rs18.98 on 7m shares, followed by Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim, firm by 17 paisa at Rs58.85 on 4m shares, Arif Habib Corp, higher by Rs1.11 at 30.37 on active support triggered by higher payouts, Engro Corporation, sharply lower by Rs5.77 at Rs137.62 also on 4m shares, Fauji Fertiliser, up 60 paisa at Rs162.50 on 3m shares, D.G. Khan Cement, steady by 11 paisa at 20.68 also on 3m shares, and Bank of Punjab firm by 10 paisa at 6.36 on 2m shares.
They were followed by National Bank, easy by six paisa at Rs45.74 on 2m shares, Pace Pakistan, lower by eight paisa at 1.53 on 1.430m shares and Nishat Chunian, up 30 paisa at 21.43 on 1.419m shares.
FUTURE CONTRACTS: The active list was led by Engro Corporation, sharply lower by Rs5.86 at Rs138.93 on 1.105m shares followed by Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim, firm by seven paisa at Rs59.35 on 0.963m shares, and National Bank, lower 11 paisa at Rs46.14 on 0.385m shares.
They were followed by Arif Habib Corporation, easy by three paisa at 26.34 on 0.356m shares and D.G. Khan Cement, up 14 paisa at 20.94 on 0.310m shares.
DEFAULTER COS: Japan Power led the list of actives, up three paisa at Rs0.95 on 120m shares, followed by Sajjad Textiles, up 80 paisa at 1.70 on 17,663 shares, and Brothers Textiles, lower 10 paisa at 0.38 on 6,489 shares. All others were fractionally traded amid light turnover.

KSE outperforms world markets in September

KARACHI: The KSE-100 shares index rose 6.2 per cent in the month of September, thereby recovering half the (11 per cent) value that equities had lost the previous month.

While most of the global markets were still grappling with the Euro zone debt debacle that pushed them to the brink, the Pakistan equities went solo towards north.
“KSE topped not only in the Asia Pacific region but in the world with 5.2 per cent month-on-month (MoM) return against Asia Pacific`s average of negative 10 per cent in the same time,” said Khurram Schehzad, head of research at brokerage house InvestCap.
He added that the world average worked out at nine per cent negative MoM in September.
Foreign outflow from the KSE was worth just $4.8 million in September, which faded in the face of an outflow of $4.5 billion from the regional markets as foreign investors scrambled for the door.
On year-to-date basis also, net foreign sales at KSE amounted to just about $16 million, compared with a massive outflow of $15.6 billion from the regional equity markets.
Comforting also was the fact that the KSE experienced a substantial jump of 37 per cent MoM in average daily trading volume in September.
On quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis-July to Sept 2011 over the same quarter last year, the yield was a negative 5.9 per cent. On year-on-year (YoY) basis, KSE-100 produced strong return of 17.5 per cent. The year-to-date (January-September) return for KSE equities was minus 2.2 per cent.
Interestingly, Atif Zafar at brokerage firm, JS Global, pointed out that the loss suffered by the KSE in 3Q2011 “was the highest in any of the previous eleven quarters”.
The analyst noted that the loss of 5.9 per cent in value was “the sharpest fall since 4Q2008. (Recall: the price floor was removed during that quarter, which had pushed equities down the slope).”
Early months of the quarter 2011 were engulfed by gloom and doom over several negative factors, such as S&P downgrade of US debt rating that fuelled speculation of double-dip recession;
estranged US-Pakistan relationship and deteriorating law and order situation in Karachi.
”Hence, the average daily volumes in the quarter, dropped to their lowest in 40 quarters to 59 million shares (ex. price floor period), while foreigners were leading net sellers of $46 million worth stock”, said the analyst.
Yet JS Global recognised the out-performance of KSE equities over the regional peers in September, based on impressive corporate results and lower than anticipated inflation numbers (albeit due to change in the base year).
It sparked investor enthusiasm over the possibility of discount rate cut in the monetary policy to be announced on Oct 8.
InvestCap thought that the SBP could go for a 50-100bps reduction in discount rate. Together with the decrease in fixed saving rates (NSS rates) by 80bps announced on the last day of September, the discount rate reduction was expected to keep equities buoyant.
The caveat were recent strains in ties with the US and closure of the IMF programme, which analyst feared could impact foreign funding in
the short term putting pressure on the Rupee, with an unsavory impact on the market.
Long term view on the Pakistan equities was, however, projected to be positive with investors continuing to opt for fertiliser, oil and gas, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and cement stocks.

Mohammed Saleem Mansoori